Sony’s Kraven the Hunter may struggle to make an impact in its theatrical debut. The comic book spin-off, part of Sony’s Spider-Man Universe, is projected to earn between $13 million and $15 million from 3,200 theaters during its opening weekend.
If estimates hold, Kraven could rival February’s Madame Web ($15.3 million debut) for the lowest opening weekend among Sony’s Marvel adaptations.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson stars as Sergei Kravinoff, the titular antihero, in this R-rated origin story. Despite its $110 million production budget (which grew from $90 million due to pandemic-related delays and last year’s writers and actors strikes), Kraven enters theaters with relatively low expectations. It is co-financed by TSG, marking Sony’s first R-rated film in the Spider-Man Universe.
A Rocky Road for Sony’s Marvel Adaptations
Directed by J.C. Chandor, Kraven the Hunter dives into Sergei Kravinoff’s tumultuous relationship with his crime lord father (played by Russell Crowe) and his journey to become the world’s greatest hunter.
The film is Sony’s third Spider-Man-adjacent superhero release of the year, following October’s Venom: The Last Dance. While the Venom trilogy, led by Tom Hardy, has been a financial success, the third installment didn’t match the box office highs of its predecessors.
Sony has struggled to replicate that success with other Marvel characters. In 2022, Morbius, starring Jared Leto as the vampire antihero, was a commercial misfire despite its connection to the Spider-Man universe.
Competing for Audience Attention
This weekend, Kraven the Hunter faces stiff competition. Warner Bros.’ anime fantasy film The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to earn $6 million to $7 million from 3,500 theaters.
Set 183 years before Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy, the $30 million film has received mixed reviews and earned only $2 million in its initial international debut.
The film was developed to protect New Line Cinema’s adaptation rights to J.R.R. Tolkien’s novels while new live-action Lord of the Rings films, including The Hunt for Gollum starring Andy Serkis, are slated for 2026 and beyond.
Dominance of Moana 2 and Wicked
Disney’s Moana 2 is poised to maintain its dominance at the domestic box office for a third consecutive weekend, with projections of $25 million to $28 million. The animated adventure has become a theatrical juggernaut, grossing $300 million domestically and $600 million globally.
Universal’s Wicked adaptation, starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, is expected to bring in $18 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend. The musical has already grossed $322 million domestically and $457 million worldwide, making it the highest-earning Broadway adaptation in U.S. box office history, surpassing Grease (1978).
Other Contenders
Paramount’s Gladiator II continues its run with an estimated $6 million to $7 million in its fourth weekend. The long-awaited sequel to Ridley Scott’s 2000 epic has earned $132 million domestically and $368.4 million globally.
Both Wicked and Gladiator II carry hefty budgets, with Universal spending $300 million across two Wicked films and Paramount investing over $250 million in Gladiator II. These projects require strong returns to break even, highlighting the high-stakes nature of this weekend’s box office battles.
While Kraven the Hunter hopes to carve out its niche, the crowded landscape and tepid projections suggest a challenging debut for Sony’s latest Marvel venture.
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